China has released a roadmap report that establishes a scientific framework to support the implementation of its carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.
Led by the Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21, the Roadmap for Carbon Neutrality Technology Development was released on July 25 after five years of research.
The report indicates that in 2021, China's net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reached the equivalent of 12.999 billion tonnes of CO_2 (including both CO_2 and non-CO_2 GHGs). To deliver on the "dual carbon" goal from this baseline, China faces challenges, such as substantial emission reductions within a tight timeframe, complex and diverse decarbonization scenarios, and competition in green industries, while opportunities also exist during this process.
To tackle these challenges, the report proposes four major transformations driven by the "dual carbon" goal: a shift in emission reduction paradigm from "intensity control" to "total amount neutrality"; regulatory system transformation from "energy consumption amount and intensity control" to "carbon emission amount and intensity control"; expanding governance scope from carbon dioxide to all GHGs; and innovation transformation from single-technology breakthroughs to system integration innovations featuring cross-disciplinary and multi-scale technological synergy solutions.
Additionally, the roadmap reveals three key characteristics of China's carbon neutrality technology development. In terms of technological maturity, most technologies remain at a relatively low level, with only about 20 percent of key technologies reaching commercial application, indicating a considerable gap before large-scale deployment. Second, as for economic viability, about 80 percent of emission reduction technologies currently impose higher product costs, with 35 percent of these technologies increasing product costs by over 50 percent. Third, most technologies deliver multifaceted benefits, encompassing pollutants reduction, enhanced energy security, andecological restoration.
Looking ahead, the roadmap further clarifies technological pathways and collaborative solutions for different phases. Prior to 2035, energy efficiency improvement technologies will play a primary role in emission reduction. From carbon peaking to 2050, the contribution of zero-carbon electricity and fuel substitution technologies will significantly increase. After 2035, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) as well as carbon removal technologies will become increasingly prominent.
Nie Zuoren, leader of the roadmap's expert group and an academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that the report was developed by over 100 leading experts from key sectors through five years of meticulous research, aiming to establish a carbon neutrality technology system aligned with China's resource endowment and development level, clarify technology development pathways, and overcome implementation bottlenecks.
He added that the roadmap not only supports China's "dual-carbon" goal scientifically but also set the direction for innovation in scientific research and industrial restructuring.
Source: Science and Technology Daily
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