Economist assesses China's role in BRICS and Global South

Jim O'Neill is interviewed during the AIM Summit Dubai 2025 on Oct. 22, 2025. (People's Daily /Gerard Al-Fil)

Nearly a quarter of a century after he coined one of the most influential economic acronyms of the 21st century, Jim O'Neill, former chief economist at Goldman Sachs, took the stage at the AIM Summit Dubai 2025, a global forum focused on international economic cooperation, to deliver a candid and thought-provoking reflection on BRICS' evolution and China's growing global influence.

O'Neill first introduced the term "BRIC" in his 2001 paper "Building Better Global Economic BRICs." The acronym stood for Brazil, Russia, India, and China, nations he argued would reshape the world economy through size, growth, and dynamism. Nearly a decade later, South Africa joined the group, transforming BRIC into BRICS.

In 2025, O'Neill admitted that while he had anticipated economic transformation, he "did not anticipate the political magnitude of BRIC." He reflected on how the grouping evolved from a mere economic concept into a symbol of global realignment, reshaping institutions and challenging traditional Western economic dominance.

The conversation inevitably turned toward China, the largest and most transformative economy within BRICS. O'Neill was unequivocal in his assessment: China remains the anchor of BRICS and the de facto leader of the Global South. "China is still possibly as big as the U.S. within the next decade," he said. "Because of its size, effectively it leads — but whether China itself wants that leadership role remains a more complex question."

He emphasized that China's focus and discipline have made it the centerpiece of the emerging world's economic strategy.

According to O'Neill, China has embraced its symbolic position as the voice of the Global South, an informal coalition of countries increasingly seeking representation and influence beyond Western institutions. "China is definitely playing the role of being the leader of the Global South," O'Neill said. "The Global South is not an organization, but many states see BRICS as representing the interests of those who are not represented."

Beyond China, O'Neill also pointed to India's rapid economic ascent, describing it as "poised to become the third largest economy in the world." He noted that deepener cooperation between China and India could significantly boost BRICS' global clout.

He added that the perception of a gradual shift away from U.S. dollar dominance is taking root, reflected in the rising price of gold and the increased use of the RMB in international settlements. "Some countries are buying gold because they anticipate the dollar's declining significance," he said. "They see the rise of the RMB and want to be on the safe side."

Turning to the United States, O'Neill warned that U.S. tariff isolationism has weakened the economy and created space for BRICS — and particularly China — to expand their influence. "The dollar's decline is not the end of the dollar," he said. "We've seen this story before. But the U.S. economy is effectively weakened by its isolationist tariff policies."

O'Neill ended his remarks with a mix of pride and caution. He acknowledged that his 2001 prediction about the rise of these emerging economies had proven largely correct — especially regarding China and India — but emphasized that BRICS' future strength depends on cooperation.

As he left the stage, O'Neill reflected that what began as an economic projection had evolved into a political statement about the balance of power in the 21st century — one increasingly shaped by China's rise, India's emergence, and the waning certainty of Western dominance. "I did not anticipate the political magnitude of BRIC," he concluded. "But perhaps that's the story of our time — economics creating new politics, and China standing at the center of it all."